The Value Thesis

Adobe Q2 FY26 Earnings Review: AI, Freemium and the Margin Question

Adobe’s Q2 numbers were strong, with revenue, ARR and free cash flow still growing. But investors are now focused on the bigger question

Jun 12 • Arda Solmaz

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After the Quarter: Notes on Lululemon, and Salesforce

Salesforce and Lululemon Quarterly Earnings Review: What Investors Should Watch Next

Jun 5 • Arda Solmaz

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May 2026

Welcome to The Value Thesis

My name is Arda Solmaz.

May 27 • Arda Solmaz

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Booking Holdings (BKNG) Business Model & Moat Analysis

A deep dive into the unit economics, the shift to merchant payments, and why Booking.com is the trust layer of global travel.

May 26 • Arda Solmaz

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Adobe: The Stock Is Cheap, But the Business Is Changing

Adobe stock looks cheap after a 70% decline, but the real question is whether AI, Firefly, Creative Cloud and Acrobat can protect free cash flow and…

May 19 • Arda Solmaz

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Tencent: The Business Behind the Narrative

Deep Dive #11

May 9 • Arda Solmaz

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HubSpot Q1 2026: A Strong Quarter, But The AI Question Is Still Hard

HubSpot reported a strong quarter. For most companies, that would be enough.

May 7 • Arda Solmaz

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February 2026

Salesforce Valuation Analysis: 13x Free Cash Flow

A look at current valuation, stock-based compensation trends, and the AI strategy

Feb 9 • Arda Solmaz

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Gartner: A Valuation Reset

Slower Contract Value Growth and AI

Feb 3

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January 2026

Gartner: The 7.5% Equity Bond

Jan 31, 2026, Updated View

Jan 31 • Arda Solmaz

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UnitedHealth After the Crash: The 3 Paths From Here

UnitedHealth fell almost 20% in a single day.

Jan 28 • Arda Solmaz

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The Trade Desk (TTD)

Bottom line: amazing business, real moat, but the stock looks pricier than it seems because a big chunk of “profit” is paid out to employees in stock…

Jan 25 • Arda Solmaz

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