Welcome to The Value Thesis

May 27, 2026

My name is Arda Solmaz.

I manage a limited family investment partnership and I am also co-founder of AnalystBook, an investment research workspace.

Before that, I worked in large technology companies, including Oracle and LinkedIn. Over time, I became more and more interested in business and investing.

Not just stock prices or market headlines, but how businesses actually make money, why some companies become very hard to compete with, why some management teams allocate capital well, and why some businesses keep compounding for many years while others slowly lose their economics.

That interest slowly turned into investing. I started looking at stocks not as tickers on a screen, but as ownership in real businesses. If I buy a share of a company, I want to think like an owner. What does this company earn? How much cash does it generate? How durable is the business? Who runs it? What can go wrong? And what price am I paying?

That is the foundation of The Value Thesis.

I focus on value investing, fundamental analysis, business quality, free cash flow, management, capital allocation, risk, and valuation.

Last year, I left my job to focus full-time on managing my family investment partnership, building AnalystBook, and writing The Value Thesis.

My portfolio is concentrated. I do not want to own many names just for the sake of diversification. I prefer fewer businesses where I have done the work, understand the downside, and have higher conviction.

I am not interested in constant buying and selling and not mainly looking for cigar-butt investments. Buffett did that very successfully in his early years, but over time he moved toward better businesses with durable economics.

I prefer businesses that can grow owner earnings over time, reinvest capital at attractive incremental returns, and become more valuable as the years pass. These businesses are not easy to find, and finding them at a sensible price is even harder.

I started writing because I wanted to organise my own thinking, but over time I received great feedback from students, finance professionals, private investors, bankers, and long-term investors who wanted clear, simple, owner-oriented business analysis.

So this Substack became more than a place to publish articles.

It became my research record.

What I Write

Free Readers

Business Breakdowns
These are articles where I explain how a business works. What the company does, how it makes money, where revenue comes from, what drives margins, and what risks are worth watching.

Not every company needs to become a full investment thesis. Sometimes it is enough to understand the business well.

Investment Notes
These are shorter pieces on companies, industries, valuation, earnings, or investing lessons I am thinking about.

Mental Models and Investing Lessons
I write about risk, margin of safety, compounding, investor psychology, valuation, and long-term thinking.

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Deep Dives
Full company research pieces where I go much deeper into the business, financials, management, valuation, risks, and what needs to be true for the investment case to work.

Earnings Reviews
After important earnings reports, I look at what changed, what matters for owners, whether the thesis improved or weakened, and what I want to watch next.

Portfolio and Watchlist Notes
I share more detailed thinking around businesses I own, businesses I am watching, and price ranges where they may become interesting.