The AI question is the real one for me. The market is voting saaspocalypse. Agents replace the super app, terminal value decays. But I think it's at least two stacked things, not one.
The moat isn't uniform. Identity, payments, social graph. Agents will go through those, not around them. Mini Programs, commerce, content discovery. Those are the contestable parts, and Douyin's already eating into them more visibly than any AI agent. Which layer is compounding from here is the actual question.
The other thing I'd push back on is Hunyuan being read as a weakness. It's not first tier, true. But the public moves have been distribution-first. DeepSeek inside Yuanbao. DeepSeek and Hunyuan inside Weixin Search. Same playbook they've always run. Own the surface, plug in whoever has the best model that month. The bet is distribution outlasts model differentiation. Could be wrong. It's a different trade from "Tencent lost the AI race."
Two bear cases, not one. The mispricing depends on which one is right.
The AI question is the real one for me. The market is voting saaspocalypse. Agents replace the super app, terminal value decays. But I think it's at least two stacked things, not one.
The moat isn't uniform. Identity, payments, social graph. Agents will go through those, not around them. Mini Programs, commerce, content discovery. Those are the contestable parts, and Douyin's already eating into them more visibly than any AI agent. Which layer is compounding from here is the actual question.
The other thing I'd push back on is Hunyuan being read as a weakness. It's not first tier, true. But the public moves have been distribution-first. DeepSeek inside Yuanbao. DeepSeek and Hunyuan inside Weixin Search. Same playbook they've always run. Own the surface, plug in whoever has the best model that month. The bet is distribution outlasts model differentiation. Could be wrong. It's a different trade from "Tencent lost the AI race."
Two bear cases, not one. The mispricing depends on which one is right.
Great analysis, specially for the honesty with your own knowledge boundaries. That's rare and crucial for a great investor.
Thanks 🙏 glad you liked it