Kazakhstan’s inflation is about 11.4% (IMF). Kaspi’s 2Q25 numbers are: revenue +20%, payments TPV +21%, marketplace GMV +15%, fintech TFV +17%, and net income +14% in tenge.
If you subtract inflation, roughly:
– Revenue: 8–9% real growth
– Volumes (TPV/GMV/TFV): roughly +5–10%+ real
– Net income: about +3–4% real
The tenge has been relatively stable vs the dollar, so in USD terms I’d say Kaspi’s real earnings are currently growing low single digits, supportted by high-single-digit real revenue growth and double-digit real volume growth.
Once interest rates eventually ease, I’d expect Kaspi’s bottom line to react positively, margins and lending volumes should both expand.
Are you sure? When I calculate FCF, I start from Operating CF, add back loans to customers, and subtract customer account inflows to arrive at the true operating cash flow. Then I deduct capex. Using that method, I get roughly $2bn for 2024 and about $2.3bn on an LTM basis through Q2 at todays exchange rates. Still looks very cheap though.
Thanks for this, you’re absolutely right to flag the customer account flows – that’s exactly where FCF can get a bit tricky to interpret for a deposit-funded model like Kaspi
On that basis, 2024 owner FCF comes out closer to $2B, which puts Kaspi on roughly 7.5× FCF at today’s $15B market cap.
When you take into consideration the high inflation in Kazakhstan, what do you consider the real $ value earnings growth rate for Kaspi?
Thanks for the question.
Kazakhstan’s inflation is about 11.4% (IMF). Kaspi’s 2Q25 numbers are: revenue +20%, payments TPV +21%, marketplace GMV +15%, fintech TFV +17%, and net income +14% in tenge.
If you subtract inflation, roughly:
– Revenue: 8–9% real growth
– Volumes (TPV/GMV/TFV): roughly +5–10%+ real
– Net income: about +3–4% real
The tenge has been relatively stable vs the dollar, so in USD terms I’d say Kaspi’s real earnings are currently growing low single digits, supportted by high-single-digit real revenue growth and double-digit real volume growth.
Once interest rates eventually ease, I’d expect Kaspi’s bottom line to react positively, margins and lending volumes should both expand.
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/KAZ
https://ir.kaspi.kz/media/2Q_2025_Presentation.pdf
Good summary but for FCF you should also adjust for the customer account inflows as this money does not belong to the shareholders of Kaspi.
Thanks for the comment, you’re absolutely right, that’s where most people make the mistake.
For a deposit-funded, customer account flows can inflate operating cash flow, and they don’t belong to shareholders.
My $2.9B ‘core FCF’ adds back loan growth but can still be affected by deposit flows.
Are you sure? When I calculate FCF, I start from Operating CF, add back loans to customers, and subtract customer account inflows to arrive at the true operating cash flow. Then I deduct capex. Using that method, I get roughly $2bn for 2024 and about $2.3bn on an LTM basis through Q2 at todays exchange rates. Still looks very cheap though.
Thanks for this, you’re absolutely right to flag the customer account flows – that’s exactly where FCF can get a bit tricky to interpret for a deposit-funded model like Kaspi
On that basis, 2024 owner FCF comes out closer to $2B, which puts Kaspi on roughly 7.5× FCF at today’s $15B market cap.