The Value Thesis

The Value Thesis

Stock & Investment Research

The Watchlist #2

Arda Solmaz's avatar
Arda Solmaz
Jan 20, 2026
∙ Paid

2026 has started with more geopolitical noise than where we left 2025.

As I write this, markets are taking the headlines badly.

But this is exactly when you pay attention. The best chances are rare. They don’t show up often. When they do, you need to be ready.

Charlie Munger said opportunities come to a prepared mind. That’s the point: you do the work early.

Investing is mostly study, not action. Most of the time, the right move is to do nothing.

Right now, many good companies still look expensive. The prices leave no room for mistakes. So I’m building my watchlist, deciding what I’m willing to pay, and then waiting.

In late 2025, I shared Watchlist #1.

Here are 5 more businesses I’m watching, and the prices I’m waiting for in 2026

What they all have in common:

  1. High Switching Costs — once you’re in, it’s hard to leave. These businesses become part of how customers operate.

  2. Disconnected Narratives — the story around them is worse than the reality. Headlines and sentiment are driving the price more than the actual business performance.

  3. Real Free Cash Flow — they generate cash after paying for what the business needs. That gives them options: reinvest, buy back shares, or strengthen the balance sheet.

  4. A Moat I Trust — I believe they have real protection around the business. Something that makes it hard for competitors to take customers and profits.

All five are currently hated or ignored for reasons that are likely temporary or exaggerated.

And because sentiment has already pushed them closer to what I think is fair value, I’m watching these names more closely than the rest, to see if the price drops to where I’d actually want to buy.

My prices might surprise you. But my job isn’t to be optimistic. It’s to avoid big mistakes. I want a price that gives me breathing room.

That’s what a margin of safety is.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. I may buy or sell these stocks at any time. You must do your own research before investing

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